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Investment Strategy for October 2020

Executive Summary

 

  • Low hanging fruit plucked  - An unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimuli has helped avert a global financial crisis and most markets have recovered near Pre Covid levels while economic activity continues to improve
  • Near term market action shall be influenced by market expectations around US Elections, incremental stimuli (or lack of it), economic news (if ahead of expectation or otherwise) and earnings beat in quarter ending September
  • However, the medium term can witness some rotation depending on US election results and the likely policies pursued by new Government That shall shape the market trajectory over next one to two quarters The medium term shall be defined by pace of economic recovery, job creation and income support which one can be hopeful of
  • India Indian markets have followed global markets, and will get anchored by them in near future as well Positioning has corrected somewhat from September while valuations are still not outright ‘ expensive While near term is expected to be volatile owing to global reasons, medium to long term looks constructive

Equity Strategy

  • Tactical : Maintain a defensive bias in near term
  • Strategic :“Buy on Dips” Equities still have modest potential to outperform bonds in long term. Prefer Sector leaders and gradual allocation towards Banking Financial services portfolios