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Investment Strategy for January 2021

Executive Summary

 

The economic cycle is on an upswing and far from the peak Post economic upswings, in the back drop of global QE fiscal stimuli, tend to influence up the cycle towards long term trend While globally there is some optimism of capex, in India too, following are noteworthy

  • A very high proportion of listed Corporates have shown resilience based on Q 2 earnings data, and restructuring risks seem to be low as of now The bottom ones are naturally more vulnerable
  • Signs of fresh brownfield expansion (using existing facilities to introduce new activity extend production lines etc
  • Enthusiasm towards PLI (Production Linked Incentive) Scheme introduced by Government CEO of Niti Aayog has pegged the potential additional production (much will be export centric to be around US 500 bn over next five years a good push towards job creation exports
  • Loose financial conditions usually engender pick up in economic activity, as evidenced by history