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RBI Survey Results – August 2018

Reserve Bank of India released the results of its Forward Looking Surveys, which are taken into consideration during the meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee.

 

Key Points:

  • Consumers are optimistic about the general economic situation and employment scenario, less optimist about their income and pessimistic about prices
  • Inflation expectations of households have been rising, reiterated by the MPC in their respective bi-monthly meetings
  • Panel of professional forecasters expect core inflation to remain above 5% in FY19, current account deficit to remain at around 2.5% of GDP in FY19 and FY20, and Indian rupee to remain stable against the US dollar till Q4 FY19
  • While overall GDP growth expectations remained unchanged for FY18, expected growth of its components did change
    • Private consumption expenditure is expected to grow further
    • Agriculture and allied services, along with industry, will have a larger contribution
    • Share of services is expected to fall
  • Companies in the manufacturing sector believe that the overall financial situation deteriorated slightly on account of overseas finance. However, sentiment on the availability of finance from banks and other sources remained stable