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US Fed Minutes of Meeting Takeaways - October 2016

Will US hike rates or not is perhaps the most important economic factor influencing market movements in current context. Hence, we continue to lay close focus on every news item that corroborates the likelihood of the same. Minutes of meeting released yesterday, similarly, offer some insights into Fed’s thought process.

 

In overall analysis, the Fed minutes released yesterday seem to be consistent with the view that a rate hike in December carries a higher probability unless economic data disappoints. By itself it may not be problematic for Emerging Markets. However, if it induces (including other factors) steepening of yield curves and lends strength to Dollar, than EM assets may come under stress.