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Equity strategy & Earnings Review – Q1 FY19 (July 2018)

Key Highlights:

  • Q1 FY19 corporate results are expected to show recovery and broadening of earnings growth. The traction in the growth is expected to be from low base (Q1 FY18 was the point of demonetisation/GST transition), improving demand conditions in consumption sector, FX benefit for exporters and higher commodity prices. Nifty Index net profit growth is expected to rise in higher teens during Q1 FY19.

Sectoral Highlights:

  • Strong growth in earnings is expected in automobiles basis robust volume growth on low base
  • Consumers: continued volume-led sales growth and healthy operational performance due to favourable operating leverage
  • Metals & mining: higher domestic realizations for ferrous although global prices of base metals were mixed) and
  • Pharmaceuticals: led by domestic formulations and stabilization of US businesses sectors
  • However, the drag in earnings is expected to be from financials sector wherein PSU financials are likely to witness a sharp contraction in earnings (high provisioning and lower investment gains, and telecom (sharp fall in revenue due to intensifying competition)